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NIO Pre-Q1 Earnings Analysis: Is the Stock Worth Buying Now?
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Key Takeaways
NIO delivered 83,465 vehicles in Q1, up 98.3% year over year and above guidance.
NIO expects revenue growth from higher deliveries despite pressure from EV input costs.
NIO plans expansion from 20 markets in 2025 to 40 markets by the end of 2026.
China-based EV company NIO Inc. (NIO - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 21, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 24 cents a share on revenues of $3.55 billion.
The loss estimate for the first quarter of 2026 has widened by 8 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates an improvement from a loss of 45 cents reported in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 114%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO’s 2026 revenues is pegged at $18.7 billion, implying a rise of 52% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from a loss of 98 cents/share incurred in 2025. For 2027, the consensus mark for NIO’s top and bottom line implies an improvement of 19% and 94%, respectively, from projected 2026 levels.
In the trailing four quarters, NIO surpassed EPS estimates twice for as many misses, with the average earnings surprise being 5.32%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NIO this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
For the three months ended March 31, NIO delivered 83,465 vehicles, representing a 98.3% increase year over year and exceeding its own guided range of 80,000-83,000 units. First-quarter deliveries consisted of 58,543 units from the NIO brand, 13,339 units from the ONVO brand and 11,583 from Firefly.
Meanwhile, growth at close peers XPeng (XPEV - Free Report) and Li Auto (LI - Free Report) was less impressive. XPeng’s first-quarter deliveries came in at 62,682 units, marking a decline from 94,008 units in the year-ago period. In contrast, Li Auto reported 95,142 deliveries, up modestly from 92,864 vehicles a year earlier.
NIO’s revenues for the quarter to be reported are expected to have benefited from increased deliveries. Our model estimates point to year-over-year growth of 124% in vehicle sales revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the flip side, growing AI-driven demand for semiconductors and computing hardware, coupled with geopolitical tensions, is adding to cost pressures and price volatility for key EV inputs such as memory chips, copper, lithium carbonate, and other raw materials. These are likely to weigh on the cost of sales and impact gross margins.
NIO Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of NIO have increased 20%, outperforming the industry, Li Auto and XPeng.
YTD Price Performance Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, NIO currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7, below Li Auto and XPeng.
NIO Looks Undervalued
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play NIO Shares Now
Despite near-term profitability pressures, the overall setup for NIO looks increasingly attractive. The company’s expanding and refreshed vehicle lineup is emerging as a major growth driver. Its third-generation ES8 has already become a standout success, reaching 100,000 deliveries in just 215 days — a record in China’s premium vehicle segment priced above 400,000 yuan. The model accounted for more than 54% of NIO’s total deliveries in the first quarter of 2026, showing strong demand for the brand’s premium offerings.
The upcoming ES9 could further strengthen this momentum. The SUV features 43 industry-first technologies and has already opened for pre-sales at a starting price of 528,000 yuan, with deliveries expected to begin next week. At the same time, NIO is broadening its reach through its sub-brands. The ONVO lineup is gaining traction with the L90 and newly launched L80, while refreshed versions of the ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6 and EC6 are entering the market with upgraded features at unchanged prices.
For the long term, management is targeting vehicle gross margins of 20-25% for the NIO brand, above 15% for ONVO and above 10% for FIREFLY. While those targets may take some time, the direction remains encouraging.
NIO’s battery swap ecosystem also continues to differentiate the company. With more than 3,800 swap stations and over 28,000 charging points, the company offers convenience that many EV rivals still struggle to match. Its Battery-as-a-Service model also helps lower upfront ownership costs.
On top of that, NIO is rapidly expanding globally, aiming to grow from 20 markets at the end of 2025 to 40 by the end of 2026. Overall, strong product momentum, global expansion and its unique battery swap advantage make the stock worth buying now.
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NIO Pre-Q1 Earnings Analysis: Is the Stock Worth Buying Now?
Key Takeaways
China-based EV company NIO Inc. (NIO - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 21, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 24 cents a share on revenues of $3.55 billion.
The loss estimate for the first quarter of 2026 has widened by 8 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates an improvement from a loss of 45 cents reported in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 114%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO’s 2026 revenues is pegged at $18.7 billion, implying a rise of 52% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from a loss of 98 cents/share incurred in 2025. For 2027, the consensus mark for NIO’s top and bottom line implies an improvement of 19% and 94%, respectively, from projected 2026 levels.
In the trailing four quarters, NIO surpassed EPS estimates twice for as many misses, with the average earnings surprise being 5.32%.
NIO Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
NIO Inc. price-eps-surprise | NIO Inc. Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for NIO
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NIO this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
NIO has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping NIO’s Q1 Results?
For the three months ended March 31, NIO delivered 83,465 vehicles, representing a 98.3% increase year over year and exceeding its own guided range of 80,000-83,000 units. First-quarter deliveries consisted of 58,543 units from the NIO brand, 13,339 units from the ONVO brand and 11,583 from Firefly.
Meanwhile, growth at close peers XPeng (XPEV - Free Report) and Li Auto (LI - Free Report) was less impressive. XPeng’s first-quarter deliveries came in at 62,682 units, marking a decline from 94,008 units in the year-ago period. In contrast, Li Auto reported 95,142 deliveries, up modestly from 92,864 vehicles a year earlier.
NIO’s revenues for the quarter to be reported are expected to have benefited from increased deliveries. Our model estimates point to year-over-year growth of 124% in vehicle sales revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the flip side, growing AI-driven demand for semiconductors and computing hardware, coupled with geopolitical tensions, is adding to cost pressures and price volatility for key EV inputs such as memory chips, copper, lithium carbonate, and other raw materials. These are likely to weigh on the cost of sales and impact gross margins.
NIO Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of NIO have increased 20%, outperforming the industry, Li Auto and XPeng.
YTD Price Performance Comparison
From a valuation perspective, NIO currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7, below Li Auto and XPeng.
NIO Looks Undervalued
How to Play NIO Shares Now
Despite near-term profitability pressures, the overall setup for NIO looks increasingly attractive. The company’s expanding and refreshed vehicle lineup is emerging as a major growth driver. Its third-generation ES8 has already become a standout success, reaching 100,000 deliveries in just 215 days — a record in China’s premium vehicle segment priced above 400,000 yuan. The model accounted for more than 54% of NIO’s total deliveries in the first quarter of 2026, showing strong demand for the brand’s premium offerings.
The upcoming ES9 could further strengthen this momentum. The SUV features 43 industry-first technologies and has already opened for pre-sales at a starting price of 528,000 yuan, with deliveries expected to begin next week. At the same time, NIO is broadening its reach through its sub-brands. The ONVO lineup is gaining traction with the L90 and newly launched L80, while refreshed versions of the ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6 and EC6 are entering the market with upgraded features at unchanged prices.
For the long term, management is targeting vehicle gross margins of 20-25% for the NIO brand, above 15% for ONVO and above 10% for FIREFLY. While those targets may take some time, the direction remains encouraging.
NIO’s battery swap ecosystem also continues to differentiate the company. With more than 3,800 swap stations and over 28,000 charging points, the company offers convenience that many EV rivals still struggle to match. Its Battery-as-a-Service model also helps lower upfront ownership costs.
On top of that, NIO is rapidly expanding globally, aiming to grow from 20 markets at the end of 2025 to 40 by the end of 2026. Overall, strong product momentum, global expansion and its unique battery swap advantage make the stock worth buying now.